Inflation Rate Forecast 2022/2023 World Europe America Asia Africa Australia G20 Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. In South Africa, inflation reached 5.9% in April 2022. Linking to sacoronavirus.co.za is now required. 10 South America by Region, by Type, and by Application . Online Store Central bank balance sheets have reached unprecedented levels and need to be capped and reduced. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. Client Log In, Facebook Twitter Size and Forecast (2017-2028) 11.3.6 South Africa Market . Policy certainty is a critical necessity for South Africa, particularly with regards to strategic issues where policy needs to be divorced from political influencers and based solely on economic realities. The pandemic significantly hindered any solid investment or new business opportunities, including property-related investments. South Africa has a tax-to-GDP ratio of 24.6% in the 2021 fiscal year. Google+, Copyright: 2022. This does not bode well for employment, since the formal sector has already lost 1,5 million jobs in the wake of the pandemic, and further pressure on employment could increase the risk of both social and political unrest. Spending levels were recovering until July 2021, but fell in response to the public violence, and remain below pre-pandemic levels. While better than anticipated at mid-year (by almost R100 billion) this is nevertheless the largest tax shortfall on record. A spurt in domestic consumer demand and a restrained inflation increase are further factors resulting in a record year for the country from a macro-economic perspective. Taking these aspects into account the BMR probabilistic macroeconomic model, predicts the South African economy to grow by 2.2% and for 2022 to be less favourable year than 2021 in terms of the key macroeconomic indicators presented in the table 1 below. Get the latest in African news delivered straight to your inbox. My Cart Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. Previous. Headline inflation is projected at 4.8% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023, National Treasury said on Wednesday. Data published Monthly by Statistics. Historical Data (index points) by years Data Period Date Historical Chart by presidents (index points) February 16, 2022. Manufacturing output expanded 2.1% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in August (July: -0.1% mom). These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. See latest PPI tables. 09/21/2022 - 07:10:00 (RTTNews) (RTTNews) - South Africa's consumer price inflation eased less-than-expected in August, figures from Statistics South Africa showed on Wednesday. In 2020, the rate reached a peak at 12 percent. Never miss out on our latest data,analysis and industryevents. However, rates of growth for 2023 and 2024 have been decreased to 1.3% and 1.5% respectively from the previous forecast of 1.9% (for both years). The cost of living crisis caused by higher inflation rates is still biting South African consumers hard. 2022 Residential Inflation 12.8%, Nonres Bldgs 9.4%, Non-bldg Infra Avg 5.6%. In 2020, the market is growing at a steady rate and with . South Africa Inflation Eases Less Than Forecast. The monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) was 0,2%, the lowest reading since January 2022 when it was also 0,2%. This is attributed to food and energy prices, especially municipal . South Africa is currently facing several economic and social challenges which have been crystalised by a number of national and international developments including the war in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, structural constraints, political and social instability, climate change and a depreciating local currency. Realistically, we can expect an average real growth of about 1,5% as has been the case over the past decade.. See Tables below: 2020 Rsdn Inflation 4.6%, Nonres Bldgs 2.7%, Non-bldg Infra Avg -0.3% 2021 Rsdn Inflation 13.4%, Nonres Bldgs 6.8%, Non-bldg Infra Avg 7.8% Figure 4 confirms that in terms of retail outlets, the highest expansion in demand by product during 2022 is expected with respect to recreational and entertainment goods (7.1%) within the durable goods category followed by medical and pharmaceutical products (4.0%) and thirdly furniture and household appliances (3.8%). Moreover, prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco increased at a more subdued pace. September's figure marked the lowest inflation rate since June. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience. 86.7 %. It does not store any personal data. (2022) conrm these results and suggest that the statistical learning models that are able to incorporate nonparametric . This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The downside risks to growth and consumption will be a function of other game changers including the Ukraine/Russia conflict, the resultant higher food and oil prices, currency depreciation, the global rising inflation and monetary policy tightening by regional and national central banks plus the persistent supply chain disruptions since the onset of COVID-19. November 3, 2022. Tue, Nov 08, 2022 3:30 PM EST. Inflation came in at 5.9% in April, matching Marchs result. Inflation dropped to 7.5% in September, which followed Augusts 7.6%. Manufacturing output expanded 2.1% month on month in seasonally adjusted terms in August (July: -0.1% mom). Actual. Looking for forecasts related to Inflation in South Africa? Moreover, prices for recreation and culture also grew at a more subdued pace. September 21, 2022 Inflation came in at 7.6% in August, which was down from July's 7.8%. The BMR forecasts household retail expenditure by product group in constant terms, to increase for most of products. Treasury said, however, that a weak employment outlook and higher inflation are likely to limit the pace of recovery in 2022. Inflation Rate Forecast 2022/2023 - was last updated on Tuesday, November 8, 2022. document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Address: Overall, durable goods are anticipated to grow the most by (4.3%) while non-durables and services are likely to expand by (2.7%) and (2.5%) respectively and lastly semi-durables are expected to contract by (-0.1%) as depicted in figure 3. Home > News > September 21, 2022 Inflation came in at 7.6% in August, which was down from July's 7.8%. Home > News > The authors would like to thank Patrick Kelly and Marietjie Bennett from Statistics South Africa for their . Looking for forecasts related to Inflation in South Africa? This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. If central banks resort to tighter monetary policy because of inflation, rates might need to be increased earlier or faster than currently anticipated and consequently, risk markets will experience a risk-free rate shock, says Herman. About Moreover, prices for recreation and culture also grew at a more subdued pace. We publish news and views ranging from vigorous opponents of governments to government publications and spokespersons. Jump to: Countries with the Highest Inflation Rates Countries with Hyperinflation Russian Inflation Meanwhile, the trend pointed up slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.4% in April (March: 5.2%). Read more Historical Annual Inflation Rates from 1958 The table below contains annual inflation rates in South Africa from 1958. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". Published: 23rd August 2022, 17:10. Says Herman, "Taking population growth and productivity growth into consideration, South Africa should be able to achieve a real economic growth of 2,5%, but there are certain factors working. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in September, down from August's 51.7. 7.5%. Link to report: South Africa: Food and Fuel Feed Rising Inflation South Africa's annual consumer price index inflation rate surged to a 13-year high of 7.4 percent in June 2022, driven mainly by a rise in food and fuel prices. The current inflation rate in South Africa is 7.80%, which is calculated based on CPI (Consumer Price Index) values for the last 12 months ending in September 2022. Inflation came in at 7.6% in August, which was down from Julys 7.8%. Regardless of the continuous population growth of the state, the. Between 2022 and 2025, South Africa's construction industry is expected to experience an average yearly growth of 3.4%, as the government increases its focus on infrastructure and . By August of 2022, Turkey's inflation rate was 80.21%. Fuel and food prices soared globally due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict that disrupted commodity markets. Stats SA figures released on 20 July 2022 have confirmed that the headline consumer inflation surged to a 13-year high of 7.4% in June from 6.5% in May, rising above market expectations of 7.2 %. | Privacy Policy | Cookies Policy | Terms & Conditions | Sitemap | RSS feed, South Africa: PMI improves but remains in contractionary territory in October, South Africa: Inflation drops to lowest level since June in September, South Africa: Manufacturing activity grows at fastest pace in seven months in August, South Africa: PMI drops into contractionary territory in September, South Africa: SARB meets expectations and delivers another 75 basis point hike in September. To complete the process, please follow the instructions in the email we just sent you. Moody's forecasts 8% inflation in 2022. source: Statistics South Africa 1Y 5Y 10Y 25Y MAX Chart Compare Export API Embed South Africa Inflation Rate Mom Inflation dropped to 7.5% in September, which followed August's 7.6%. Adding to South Africa's stagflation risk is the country's high level of unemployment, as well as the fact that GDP contracted by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022. January's moderation came on the back of declining prices for transport. Projected inflation rate in Africa as of 2022, by country (compared to the previous year) Characteristic. Inflation cooled to 5.7% in January, down from December's over four-year high of 5.9%. On a month-on-month basis core inflation was at. South Africa: Inflation eases in January. The maximum level was 120 index points and minimum was 1.2 index points. "Although the forecast assumes 2022 and 2023 electricity prices rise in line with Eskom's application for a tariff increase in 2022/23, there is a risk that electricity inflation may exceed the assumption due to increasing costs of ensuring electricity supply," said Treasury in the Budget Review document. The World Inflation Rate The average inflation rate around the world is 7.4%. South Africa Inflation Expectations - 2022 Data - 2023 Forecast - 2000-2021 Historical South Africa Inflation Expectations Summary Forecast Stats Download Inflation Expectations in South Africa increased to 5.92 percent in the third quarter of 2022 from 5.63 percent in the second quarter of 2022. source: Bureau for Economic Research (BER) 3Y 10Y George Herman, Director and Chief Investment Officer atCitadel,the specialist wealth management company, describes the current economic outlook and outlines investment factors to consider as we head towards 2022. Global inflation, however, should be kept top of mind as it appears global growth has peaked and will likely start to decline, while the energy crisis in Europe and global supply-chain bottlenecks are already promoting global inflation. My Cart Trading Economics provides data for 20 million economic indicators from 196 countries including actual values, consensus figures, forecasts, historical time series and news. About Unisa Main Campus, Preller Street, Muckleneuk Ridge, City of Tshwane, Behavioural and Neuroscience Research Unit, Mid-2022 Population Estimates for South Africa, 2022 CESE AFRICA SUMMIT | 20-22 SEPTEMBER 2022, CONSUMER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY INDEX: Q3 2022, ECONOMIST OF THE YEAR WEBINAR: 24 AUGUST 2022. Meanwhile, core inflation edged down to 4.4% in August, from Julys 4.6%. This is attributed to food and energy prices, especially municipal rates from rising electricity prices, high domestic food inflation and elevated fuel prices, which are expected to be the key sources of inflationary pressure in 2022. ECONOMIC GROWTH TARGETS UNLIKELY TO BE ACHIEVED IN 2022, Says Herman, Taking population growth and productivity growth into consideration, South Africa should be able to achieve a real economic growth of 2,5%, but there are certain factors working against this target which are likely to result in the economic growth in 2022 being less than half of that attained in 2021. South Africa Inflation Forecast 2019-2024 and up to 2060, Data and Charts G20 Economic Forecast Export Export Export entire page or individual visualizations to Excel (.xlsx), PowerPoint (.pptx), PDF or image (.png). Read more. Sudan. After recording one of its deepest contractions (7.0%) in 2020, South Africas real GDP growth bounced back to 4.9% in 2021 driven primarily by a combination of base effects, strong commodity prices, and the gradual reopening of the economy after strict COVID-19 regulations and mobility restrictions. There was a problem processing your submission. We operate from Cape Town, Dakar, Abuja, Johannesburg, Nairobi and Washington DC. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads. October 19, 2022. The SARB also cut its growth forecast for 2022 and now expects the economy to grow 1.9% this year, down from 2.0% before. South Africa inflation rate for 2018 was 4.52%, a 0.67% decline from 2017. April's result marked the weakest reading since January. The economy is forecast to expand 1.4% in 2023. Selected indicators for South Africa Population 60.1 million Data service is momentarily unavailable. . The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. Annual consumer inflation dipped to 7,6% in August from 7,8% in July. Industrial metals are considered a driving factor of global growth, and South Africa as a commodity-exporting country, is subject to global growth dynamics. Fuel prices decreased by 3,8% between July and August, with petrol falling by 5,0% and diesel by 0,9%. JOHANNESBURG, Oct 19 (Reuters) - South Africa's headline consumer inflation slowed for a second month in a row in September, to 7.5% year on year from 7.6% in August, data from Statistics . The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 49.5 in October, up from the prior months 49.2. Inflation Headline inflation is projected at 4.8% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2023, National Treasury said. Register for free to Reuters and know the full story It said the administered prices consumer price index, which include electricity and water, was projected at 8% in 2021, 5.9% in 2022 and. South Africa) Some of the key questions answered in . South Africa: Inflation holds stable in April May 18, 2022 Consumer prices increased 0.59% in April over the previous month, below the 0.99% rise recorded in March. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". By Moonstone Information Refinery on 9 May 2022. Press Headline inflation in South Africa will rise to about 8% this year, breaching the upper end of the South African Reserve Bank's target band of 3% to 6%, according to a research report by Moody's Investors Service published . . Find out more and get the banner. In terms of the economic outlook for South Africa in 2022, Deloitte Insights (2022) postulates that South Africa needs accelerated structural reforms, infrastructure investment, and fiscal consolidation to realise higher growth in the years to come. Business report (2022) highlighted that headline inflation in South Africa for 2022 has been forecast upward from 4.9% to 5.8%, primarily due to the higher food and fuel prices, triggering a tighter monetary policy and warned South African consumers to brace for even higher prices this year as global supply chain backlogs are showing no signs of easing and are likely to worsen for the rest of 2022. According to the IMF, median inflation approached 9% in August. Inflation Expectations, 2020Q4. The exchange rate dropped to a low of 16.91, which was sharply lower than this week's high of 17.13. LinkedIn Most recent CPI South Africa (inflation figure) 7.801 % When we talk about the rate of inflation in South Africa, this often refers to the rate of inflation based on the consumer price index, or CPI for short. Google+, Copyright: 2022. This represented a decrease in comparison to the previous years. Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. In addition, global trade is decelerating, and global monetary policy will consequently lead to higher interest rates. This is due to increased employment (+4.2% y-o-y in 2022Q2) as well as higher gross earnings (+4.5% y-o-y) across the formal non-agricultural economy remuneration. Published by Aaron O'Neill , Jul 27, 2022 South Africa's inflation has been quite stable for the past years, levelling off between 3.2 and 6.3 percent, and is in fact expected to stabilize. Real Household Consumption Expenditure Forecast 2022 However, any deceleration of global growth will lead to concomitant weakness of the rand as demand for commodities declines, concludes Herman. The WEF cited this prolonged economic stagnation among the five key risk factors that could affect the countrys stability in the short term with employment and livelihood crises as the second biggest risk factor to the country as the 34.9% unemployment rate in South Africa was the highest in the world. In August 2022, South Africa's inflation rate came in at 7.6% down from 7,8% recorded in July 2022. Please try again later. South Africa's annual inflation rate eased for the second month to 7.5% in September of 2022, from 7.6% in August, matching market expectations but still above the upper limit of the South African Reserve Bank's target range of 3%-6%. Stil, the trend pointed up, as annual average inflation rose to 6.2% in August (July: 5.9%). Consumer Price Index in South Africa remained unchanged at 106 index points in September 2022. The SARB has increased its GDP forecast modestly for the South African economy to 2.0%, from 1.7% for 2022 as the Q1.22 GDP print surprised on the upside. "Consumption is supported in the near term by the extension of the special COVID-19 social relief of distress grant in 2022/23, and a relatively mild fourth wave of infections, followed by further easing of COVID-19 restrictions at the end of 2021.". Introduction That matched the median. It also dipped after the relatively weak economic data from the US that dragged the dollar index. Key Macroeconomic Forecasts 2022 Consumer prices rose 0.20% over the previous month in January, slowing from the 0.57% increase seen in December. Download a sample report now. Read more Population growth in South Africa hovers between 1.3 percent to about 1.6 percent in that time, always being on an ascending path. Looking at the details of the release, the result was largely driven by easing price pressures for transportation. Core inflation, which excludes prices of food, non-alcoholic beverages, fuel and energy, rose to 4.4% year on year in June, from 4.1% previously. The GlobalHigh Voltage Fuse Cutouts market is anticipated to rise at a considerable rate during the forecast period, between 2022 and 2028. The softer rise was primarily driven by slower growth in prices for housing and utilities. The global inflation rate surged from 4.35% in 2021, and 3.18% in 2020. The average inflation rate in Southern Africa was projected at seven percent in 2022. It is defined as the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that are typically purchased by households. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in September, down from August's 51.7. Posted in Industry News. 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